Ep. 16: Daniel Burrus on How Trends Can Help You Predict The Future
In this episode, David sits down with Daniel Burrus, Technology Futurist, Disruptive Innovation Expert, Keynote Speaker, and Best Selling Author, to discuss how trends can help you predict the future.
Daniel Burrus is considered one of the World’s Leading Futurists on Global Trends and Disruptive Innovation. He is a strategic advisor to executives from Fortune 500 companies, using his Anticipatory Business Mode to develop game-changing strategies based on his proven methodologies for capitalizing on technology innovations and their future impact.
He is the author of seven books, including The New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller, Flash Foresight, and his latest best-selling book, The Anticipatory Organization, and he is a syndicated writer with millions of monthly readers on the topics of technology driven trends, disruptive innovation, and exponential change. Burrus is an innovative entrepreneur who has founded six businesses, four of which were U.S. national leaders in the first year. The New York Times has referred to him as one of the top three business gurus in the highest demand as a speaker.
Daniel’s Top Technology-Driven Hard Trends Shaping 2021: https://www.burrus.com/seethefuture
“The Anticipatory Organization” by Daniel Burrus: https://amzn.to/30uYBah
“Flash Foresight” by Daniel Burrus: https://amzn.to/2O9Gpkg
1. “Hard Trends: a future fact that will happen. The key is that it cannot be changed.”
2. “Soft Trend: based on an assumption about the future that may or may not happen.”
3. “A trend by itself is academic.”
4. “When you attach a trend to an actionable opportunity, it bursts into life.”
5. “The beautiful opportunity of a soft trend is if you don’t like it you can change it.”
6. “A hard trend lets you see disruptions before they disrupt.”
7. “Hard trends: you can see problems before they happen and pre-solve them.”
8. “I like to take complexity and get it to a simplified form so that we can make use of it and internalize it.”
9. “Opposites work better.”
10. “The things I don’t know don’t empower me.”
11. “The power of a hard trend is it gives you certainty in a world filled with uncertainty.”
12. “Most people aren’t looking far out they’re looking close in.”
13. “Misinformation is inaccurate information.”
14. “Disinformation is believed misinformation.”
15. “Hope is not a strategy.”
16. “You’re either a reactor or an anticipator.”
17. “Take your biggest problem and skip it.”
18. “Most of the things that are holding you back right now can be found by looking in the mirror in the morning.”
19. “The cost of the “no” always exceeds the cost of the “yes”.”
20. “I want to look for, as a leader, any opportunity to elevate trust.”
21. “You’ve got to do your fact checking.”
22. “As a leader you need to make sure you are doing fact checking before you share things.”
23. “Right now, there is more opportunity than there has ever been on the planet earth.”
24. “You’re either going to be a disruptor or the disrupted, there is no middle.”
25. “You can only coast down hill, and there is a bottom.”
26. “Its not the tool. Its how you use it.”
27. “If you’re not shaping your future, someone else is shaping it for you.”
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David Horsager: Welcome to the trusted leader show we have a very special guest today and he’s not just one of the world’s leading futurists, he’s a friend. He’s been
David Horsager: He’s been a researcher. He’s been a known thought leader. I’m going to read just a little bit about him.
David Horsager: World’s one of the world’s leading futurists on global trends and innovation. These New York Times bestseller. He’s written seven books, we’re going to get into a couple of his books today and some thoughts behind that he’s
David Horsager: Been around the world as a thought leader and really futurist I think we think about this. His name is Dan Burris and first of all just a welcome Dan. Thanks for being
Daniel Burrus: Here. Thank you for having me on. Really appreciate it.
David Horsager: Well, we’ve talked research, I can still remember one of our drives after both speaking at an event. And one of our drives to the airport talking about
David Horsager: Our basis for what we do and why we believe in it. But, you know, looking at you a futurist and I remember back in even the 80s, you were one of the only futurist that correctly made
David Horsager: 20 or so claims that actually all came true in technology. So
David Horsager: Even with a futures. Let’s go back before going forward. Tell me about that. And then I’ve got a couple other thoughts backward. Before we get to some of the newest trends. We want to hear from you today show is going to be packed.
David Horsager: With some great stuff. I know that just because I know one Dan
Daniel Burrus: Yeah, we can research this birth research, which is wow 37 years old now. Holy cow.
Daniel Burrus: That was the I’ve started six companies over the years. This is my core company. The other ones like so and I spent a year doing research before ever starting it researching all areas of
Daniel Burrus: biology, chemistry, physics technology because that was what I taught in my early days I taught biology and physics.
Daniel Burrus: So I did the research came up with my methodologies and then launched with my 20 core technologies that would drive economic value creation going forward. And if you look at that initial list, which was 1983
Daniel Burrus: You would say AI genetic engineering digital technology fiber optics. I mean, if you look at the list. It’s still a bit
Daniel Burrus: And even nanotechnology was on that 83 but that’s because I use the scientific approach to doing it. And I actually, this is an interesting thing. I use biology to help me do it because in biology, there is
Daniel Burrus: A way of categorizing things so that, you know, for example, whether you saw an animal you would never seen in your life before you would know if it would
Daniel Burrus: Have a live birth or again or lay an egg, if you paid attention elementary school. Well, that’s because of what you learned in biology when I applied that to emerging technology.
Daniel Burrus: So that you could make sense out of it. And again, I’ve been researching all the way along. I’m not a one guy company and that sweat seven books. And I’ve written
Daniel Burrus: An article a week for years or decades, a lot of writing. And I think the reason I’ve got a track record for being right about where things are going is number one, I leave out the parts I can be wrong about
Daniel Burrus: I focus on what I know I can be right about and that’s part of what I
Daniel Burrus: Teach and, secondly, and I think this is true for you too. So, I want to say this for both of us. I think we both now I’ll speak for me. But I think you’ll chime in.
Daniel Burrus: I was lucky I found out why I was good on the planet. And that is, I’m here to teach. So I can’t help myself. So instead of me just doing it and loading you all be amazed.
Daniel Burrus: I’m excited about being on the show and writing books and articles, because I’m there to help others learn how to do it, that’s what excites me
David Horsager: Well, that’s what excites you, but one thing I know about you is you’re not just a teacher to teach. We know lots of speakers that have written a book that I’ve never read one practically right
David Horsager: But you actually are a learner, which makes you a great teacher, I think.
Daniel Burrus: And that’s the same word. Yeah.
Daniel Burrus: Right, right.
Daniel Burrus: You know, you learn
Daniel Burrus: Actually, the act of teaching is learning because you’re learning things as you teach it.
David Horsager: Right. Yeah. One of the best ways I tell the kids. Hey, you. Number two kids teach this to number three kid because
David Horsager: You’ll learn by teaching right and then when they’ve got
David Horsager: You know this. I’m going to jump around here because I know you and we’re going to jump around a little bit, but I think this this just touches on your idea that you often use heart trends certainties. I think is unique about you.
David Horsager: To accelerate innovation results. And I think that something interesting is, you’ve really kind of differentiated hard trend to soft trend. Tell us about that.
Daniel Burrus: Yeah. And again, this is 37 years of research and and i look instead of me saying, look, I’m the only guy with the right trends. Everyone else is wrong. I didn’t do that.
Daniel Burrus: What I did is I found a way of taking all trends and putting him to one of two pots, so that you could make sense out of them, because most of the time. People don’t pay a lot of attention to trends because they may or may not happen.
Daniel Burrus: And let’s face it, you can’t predict the future is a general thought which is not correct. But that’s what they think.
Daniel Burrus: So what I found is that all trends are either hard trends, based on what I call a future fact that will happen. The key is, it cannot be changed.
Daniel Burrus: Or it is a sub trend based on an assumption about the future that may or may not happen. It doesn’t say it won’t happen. But it really changes how you look at risk and driving innovation.
Daniel Burrus: You, I’ll give you a couple of examples, but let me just kind of
Daniel Burrus: You know, we have a couple of other concepts. A second key related concept that I’ve helped people understand is that a trend by itself is an academic I’m bored. You’re bored.
Daniel Burrus: When you attach a trend to an actionable opportunity it bursts into life. So a hard trend. What does it do it lets you see disruptions before they disrupt
Daniel Burrus: Allowing you then to have a choice to be either the disrupt door or the disrupt it because it’s going to happen anyway.
Daniel Burrus: At all. And the other type of so the opportunity is then I can see problems before I have them so I can pre solve them instead of letting them play out. Let’s face it. How many times have people said, I knew that would happen. And I would say, Why did you let it
Daniel Burrus: And then, and then there are the soft trends which may or may not happen, and the beautiful opportunity of a soft trend is
Daniel Burrus: If you don’t like it, you can change it and a quick example now. All right. Let’s take health care costs in the United States over the last 10 years
Daniel Burrus: Been going up, up, up, up, up. By the way, that’s a trend. Now if you think it’s a hard trend unstoppable you spend all of your time trying to figure out, how are we going to pay for it as it gets worse as the baby boomers get older.
Daniel Burrus: But if you realize, actually that’s a soft trend. You can change it if you want to. And then you start looking at technology, like for example blockchain.
Daniel Burrus: Could be used to take our health care system in the US, which is got very low trust very low transparency.
Daniel Burrus: That that aspirin and actually cost you 22 bucks if you knew that your dad your spouse, bring it
Daniel Burrus: Up but and if we use blockchain. You could have transparency higher trust more security. And by the way, cost would go down.
Daniel Burrus: Now, it could give you other ways we could use technology to do that. And by the way, there is a startup that’s doing that with blockchain with 100 million startup and money. So I think there’s some bets placed on that one already.
Daniel Burrus: But the point is, if you don’t like it, you can change it. So let’s say that you’re in the restaurant business right now right now with Coke.
Daniel Burrus: And sales quick whoa down your luck. Yeah. Especially if you’re in your California or something because I’m here in San Diego right now.
Daniel Burrus: And you’re saying well wow it’s just going to keep going down. We got to figure out how we’re going to write that out. However, going down is is suffering, you could do something about that.
Daniel Burrus: And the restaurant owners that I’ve talked to and got them into doing takeout and really upping their game on on home deliveries and things like that. I’ve actually gone the other direction.
Daniel Burrus: So, so I’ve trends don’t like them. You can change it. I like that hard trends. You can see problems before they happen and pre solve them. You can see disruptions. But, or they disrupt giving you amazing opportunities.
David Horsager: So what are a couple more hard trends. I see those soft trends that we can change. And that’s what we love because
David Horsager: Actually, we can think they’re hard, but it’s actually almost that people have to have a growth mindset for this right. It’s like, I gotta
David Horsager: See that I can actually change something for all the soft trends, instead of just saying it’s gonna be that way. But what about a hard trend. You can’t do anything about a couple more real examples.
Daniel Burrus: Yeah, exactly. There’s again. I like to take complexity and get it to a simplified form so that we can make use of it.
Daniel Burrus: And internalize it. So basically, there’s three categories of hard trends.
Daniel Burrus: Demographics for example there’s 68 million baby boomers. Now again, you’ve heard the ferry 78 million but 10,010 million have already died so you can’t count them.
Daniel Burrus: You know, they’re on the other end of the spectrum versus Gen Z who are, you know, growing and having kids.
Daniel Burrus: And, and, you know, they’re not going to get younger, they’re going to continue to age and we can predict a lot of problems and pre solve them. Or we can let them play out for example.
Daniel Burrus: A lot of people will be retiring in our organizations now and for sure and someone might say, and here’s a really good teaching moment. I’m going to take right now for everyone listening.
Daniel Burrus: So they might say, okay, the hard trend is people in our organization, they’re going to be a lot of leaders retiring and they’re going to be taking their knowledge and wisdom with them.
Daniel Burrus: Well, now here’s the interesting thing. They stated a hard Trent, and to subtract
Daniel Burrus: Because when you hear the word and or there’s a comma in a trend statement he probably got a hard and soft and it probably starts with the heart and enjoy the soft
Daniel Burrus: So let me just give you the example, going back to that there’s a lot of people and organizations are going to be retiring.
Daniel Burrus: Our trend guarantee that’s going to happen. They’re going to take their knowledge and wisdom with them. You could do something about that through mentoring, creating a knowledge base, creating a wisdom base.
Daniel Burrus: Or you could let them leave with that knowledge and wisdom is so knowing the difference makes all the different so demographics is one and I could get into that whole thing. But there’s another one. This will shock people government regulation.
Daniel Burrus: government regulation because when we have a law put into place. There’s a whole bunch of opportunities Ilan musk every business. He started since PayPal. He has received
Daniel Burrus: Hundreds of millions of dollars, x i battered it up 4.2 billion so far from the government because instead of looking at a regulation or a law and getting bummed out which most of us do.
Daniel Burrus: One of the things I teach in my anticipatory leader system is that opposites works better. So instead of looking at all the things you don’t like about that law.
Daniel Burrus: go the opposite. Look at what you do, like, and you might find some amazing opportunities, by the way, you might say, well, you can’t predict the future of regulation.
Daniel Burrus: I would say yes, you can. You just can’t predict it all the things I don’t know. Don’t empower me, I would like to know the things I do know for example, let me ask our viewers and listeners right now. Do you think they’re going to be is going to be more regulation around cyber security.
Daniel Burrus: Well, yeah, why because it’s unheard transit play yet Democrats and Republicans can’t ignore, but there are some other things that we could debate. So I think the see the power of a hard trend.
Daniel Burrus: And I’m going to give you the third one in a second.
Daniel Burrus: But the power of a hard trend is it gives you certainty in a world filled with uncertainty and strategy based on uncertainty has high risk strategy based on certainty has low risk and high reward. So the third category like to fulfill my promise here is technology.
Daniel Burrus: I trust. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Technology and technology is literally changing how we live, work and play. It’s transformative. Are we going to be putting more in the cloud. Whoa, yeah.
Daniel Burrus: And if you don’t like AI will it go away. No. So, and so we know a lot and five after five g is that it
Daniel Burrus: No, that’d be some code 60 I would like seven g and if you follow some of the things I’ve taught you can even see the timeframes of when they’ll come out because I’ve been accurate on that since one g
Daniel Burrus: And there’s a way to do that. So the, the key again is you have those three categories demographics, you have regulations and you have technology, all of those give you amazing opportunities to see the future and to develop you know that the game changing opportunities.
David Horsager: So, you know, you wrote and talk a lot about, oh, no. Just read something here about the anticipatory organization, your book because
David Horsager: co founder of Fast Company Alan Webber said if you’re in business and you’re not thinking about disruption, you’re not paying attention.
David Horsager: And if you haven’t read the anticipatory organization. You haven’t learned how to think about and get ahead of the disruption disruption is headed your way read this book.
David Horsager: Now this was written before co but this pandemic. How do you anticipate these kind of things. We had a pandemic. A lot of people did not anticipate. But what. What say you about this in conjunction with the anticipatory organization and you’re
Daniel Burrus: Absolutely. Well, a couple of things. Number one, that’s called they often call it a black swan event.
Daniel Burrus: And they call it a black swan because supposedly it comes out of nowhere, but actually black swans never come out of nowhere.
Daniel Burrus: Imagine right now in your mind large a large lake and near you are all bunch of white Swanson ducks and geese, but the black swans are on the other shore.
Daniel Burrus: You’re probably not even looking at those you’re looking at all the ones that are cool real near you, because most people aren’t looking far out there looking clothes in
Daniel Burrus: The black and yellow, black swan is swimming your way, but you don’t see it yet. You don’t see it until it’s all of a sudden, it’s right there. Holy cow. There’s a black swan here.
Daniel Burrus: So in December, our satellites. And by the way, I am a advisor to the joint chiefs and I do. I’m on the futures group of the Pentagon. And so I do have access to, and I can just say that
Daniel Burrus: We were able to see what was happening from the satellites in China. And what were you know the
Daniel Burrus: morgues and all the things that were taking place something was going on in January. It was known
Daniel Burrus: Started to talk about it, but not that much. In other words, it was there. We were not really looking far out. We weren’t looking at the other side of the lake, but not everybody some we’re looking at the other side of the lake.
Daniel Burrus: And if you are listening to my reports in March. I was talking about. We’re going to get a painful lesson an exponential because we knew back then that unchecked.
Daniel Burrus: A virus would spread double every three to four days, by the way it does that, unless you wear a mask and you do physical distancing and those kinds of things.
Daniel Burrus: So to go to trust and your wheelhouse.
Daniel Burrus: I the we have been in the information age and I’m not really talking in just a political way here. I’m really talking about technology.
Daniel Burrus: And that is we have entered, especially over the last five years or so, maybe even six increasingly the disinformation age. And I would say that misinformation is inaccurate information. This information I would define as believed misinformation.
Daniel Burrus: And that’s a lot of that has to do with AI. It has to do with the algorithms and Facebook and other social platforms.
Daniel Burrus: That are designed to get you engaged. And unfortunately, love and harmony. Don’t get us very engaged.
Daniel Burrus: But anger, fear hate that gets us coming back for more. So you get more of what you get and feeds you more and more and get you more engaged, although none of its vetted
Daniel Burrus: So is that a hard trend. We can’t stop is trust because I’m going to get right to the my opinion on trust right now because I know that’s your expertise. And by the way, thank you for doing what you’ve done by creating the institute
Daniel Burrus: And by bringing this important subject to to so many and that is
Daniel Burrus: Trust going down is indeed soft
Daniel Burrus: D didn’t know that mean it will continue to go down or yet surely can, but there’s something we could do about it. And that means you need some strategies, you need to have hope is not a strategy.
Daniel Burrus: So diminished trust is indeed a complete soft Trent highly likely unless some we do some things. And again, you might say, as a listener.
Daniel Burrus: I can’t control Facebook. I can’t control what different politicians say I can’t control it. And I would say
Daniel Burrus: All right, I don’t want to list the things I can’t control. I want a list of things I can control. I don’t want to list the things that were uncertain about how one was the things I’m certain about
Daniel Burrus: I don’t want to list of things I can’t do I want to list the things I can do. And that’s why
Daniel Burrus: David, I am just like you’ve got trust is the big thing you’re trying to help people to do until learn to work with again. Love that.
Daniel Burrus: I’m trying to get people to have an anticipatory mindset because that you can, you’re either a reactor or you’re an anticipated.
Daniel Burrus: And most people don’t realize that agility is a reactive strategy. The reason you’re Agile is you have to be able to move quickly when something is coming at you, agile athletes are, you know, that’s defense. It’s not offense.
Daniel Burrus: And I’m not putting down agility, you need to be agile. I didn’t say I could predict everything I said I leave out the parts that can be wrong about. There are a lot of things you can’t predict. Well, then you better be agile.
Daniel Burrus: But that’s only one side of the strategy coin. That’s the defense. But if you look at the last 20 years of Super Bowl winners. It’s been the offense teams have been the major winners.
Daniel Burrus: You need offense. That’s where anticipation comes in, anticipating so it’s not like get rid of agility.
Daniel Burrus: It’s like you really need to be able to work both sides of the court. Here I would like you to be anticipatory leaders.
Daniel Burrus: Not just reactionary or fast reactionary and most of us have found out with code and with so many things coming so fast, no matter how agile, you are. It hasn’t been helping that much, but those that have been anticipatory have actually done quite well.
David Horsager: Well, I’m going to recommend this book anticipatory organization that everybody, every leader every, every person, we need to start thinking this way but
David Horsager: Let’s get into a couple more tips that you can give from anticipatory organization as you teach anticipatory leadership anticipatory thinking. And this is a model that really
David Horsager: You know touches everything. And I would argue to be trusted long term, you’re going to have to be able to be an anticipatory leader. So that’s why I will align with this and believe in it, so much so.
David Horsager: Let’s, let’s jump in, you have a couple more takeaways. We can think of it to become more anticipatory and I want the only to buy the book, but
Daniel Burrus: Yes. Well, let me start with a something I’d like you all to do after this podcast. Alright, let’s get cut to the chase of what I’d like you to do.
Daniel Burrus: And I’d like you to consider blocking out one hour a week you know one hour a week is doable.
Daniel Burrus: And by the way, if you don’t put it in your calendar and market down on what happened why you’ll be putting out another fire, you’ll be crisis management.
Daniel Burrus: But this isn’t about crisis management. It’s about opportunity management and it’s about finding, certainly in a seemingly uncertain world.
Daniel Burrus: And in that hour, I’d like you to list the hard trends certain these you know will happen. Go for a pic from demographics, or pick from technology or even regulation again. You can find more on Barista calm. If you want to find out more about how to do it.
David Horsager: Say that right now. Oh, no, we’re going to talk about the trends in a minute. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. But burst com will give you again I’m writing an article a week so you can go to be you R Us calm and
Daniel Burrus: Find blogs and or join, you know, I’ve got a web 1.3 million followers on LinkedIn. Join me there. So there’s plenty of ways of getting information about what that stuff is so
Daniel Burrus: Here’s what I’d like to do, I’d like you to make a list of things you are certain about what are the trends. Remember trend by itself has no value. I wanted to attach an opportunity attached to it.
Daniel Burrus: An opportunity that you can take action on and then you know it, you’ll get you’ll get a list and big list never get done.
Daniel Burrus: So I would like you to refine it down. Find the low hanging fruit. Something you can take action on pick one thing
Daniel Burrus: And take action on it and you will be amazed at what you will see. So there is a an actionable tip. I’ll give right now a strategy.
Daniel Burrus: And within the anticipatory model. I actually like in my anticipatory leader learning system, which I’m happy to say as an award winner.
Daniel Burrus: I’ve got 28 lessons in there and hard trends is one of 28 soft trends is one of 28 they are the foundation to it.
Daniel Burrus: But as I mentioned a little earlier opposites work better is one of those, because how do you be more innovative people saying, I want you to be creative and well how do I do that, you need some tools. For example, one of the things that I teach is take your biggest problem and skip it.
David Horsager: I was gonna ask about that next.
Daniel Burrus: And I use skip it up, man. I use it all the time, and it is so powerful as it’s amazing. So there are two elements to it very quickly.
Daniel Burrus: One element is skipping it all together and the other words you think you need to do it. But that’s an assumption. Yeah. Is that a future fact
Daniel Burrus: You’re, you know, I need an office. I need a stack. I need funding. I can’t start a business without investors.
Daniel Burrus: Who have started six companies five are profitable. The first year for national leaders in the first year. One of them was an aviation.
Daniel Burrus: And 37 national locations in the first year and I never had any investors. Let’s face it, I started out teaching. I didn’t even have any money. So there are ways of doing it. So if you assume you need all that
Daniel Burrus: That is not a future fact that’s an assumption and maybe that’s holding you back. Actually, most of the things that are holding you back right now can be found by looking in the mirror in the morning.
Daniel Burrus: You are holding you back. Most people would say, money is my biggest problem. And I would say, Well, the reason. Money is your biggest problem and probably always says your biggest problem.
Daniel Burrus: Is because that’s not your problem. It’s dead. What is, what is the real problem and it may be, if you’re trying to get money for me and I’m the CFO and you want to fund your project.
Daniel Burrus: And as a CFO. I’m trying to say no because I’m trying to keep the company money, you haven’t used certainty.
Daniel Burrus: To help you to sell your idea.
Daniel Burrus: You haven’t said, here are some things, some future facts that we know. And by the way, there’s a way to get them to agree with you immediately because you learn to instead of giving your opinion you learn to speak and future facts very powerful.
Daniel Burrus: And when you’re speaking in future facts, by the way, that’s a way you can get people to trust you more because you’re not giving your opinion.
Daniel Burrus: And then you’re saying what I want the money for is a disruption that I know will happen. Here’s why future facts and if we don’t do something someone else will.
Daniel Burrus: What’s the downside and then you get into the cost of what’s the real cost of the know here when we know it’s a future fact
Daniel Burrus: And the cost of the now always exceeds the cost of the yes because again, financial people have all been they all know that saying yes costs money, saying no costs nothing
Daniel Burrus: We need to reverse that operations work better. Getting back to skip it. Another element of skip it is whatever problem you’ve got, that’s not it. There’s another one. You’re not solving the right one.
Daniel Burrus: So the for a simple example, my
Daniel Burrus: Niece Halle she’s got her job and she can’t seem to save money.
Daniel Burrus: She called me the other day and said Uncle van. I can’t save any money. I’m really trying hard and she knows it’s possible because her older sister Audrey, can save money like crazy, but how again.
Daniel Burrus: And and really trying. Let’s say you’re working on the wrong problem or you should work on how you spend money instead
Daniel Burrus: If she was working to help she say she should have done the opposite and work and how she spent so is your problem really your problem or is there another one.
Daniel Burrus: And in I’ve been good at solving impossible problems because I find what the real problem is, or I help people skip it all together.
Daniel Burrus: I have always had a problem with spelling. How can I write seven books and thousands of articles I skipped that I have somebody checked me
Daniel Burrus: I love
David Horsager: I love it. Well, this is a, you know, good place. I want to go backwards to go forward and I wrote down okay because we’re going to pull back to trust here then.
David Horsager: Everybody listening. You’re gonna love this. You’re going to get some future tech trends that Dan has noticed and where you can find all those are going to touch on those. But before we do
David Horsager: You know everything. We talked about is trust as the leading indicator. It’s never a leadership issue. It’s always a trust issue number sales issue a diversity issue and innovation issue. It’s never even a
David Horsager: You know, a marketing issue. The only way to amplify marketing messages increase trust in the message. The only way to deal with diversity in a way that doesn’t people against each other’s increase trust we
David Horsager: We have to deal with a trust issue. But you said something about trust back before I was doing even my really a graduate research 1989 you were. I got a quote on you.
David Horsager: Hope. I’m not going on left field here. Trust is the glue that holds the net enabled knowledge economy together, speak to that, if you will.
Daniel Burrus: Yeah. And by the way, still true. So how do you get people when I started working in the the web. Now the internet actually been around for a long time that was around before I started in 1983
Daniel Burrus: Universities primarily used it. So the internet itself is not new. The web is and the ability to do web pages and all that stuff. That’s what broke it loose and made it go crazy.
Daniel Burrus: So when we started looking at e commerce in the beginning. And I started working with banks and credit card companies and Visa, MasterCard, how do we get people to actually buy online.
Daniel Burrus: And it was easy. It’s about trust. And one of the ways that you can get people to trust because how do you get them to trust going on line number. This is back in the early 90s.
Daniel Burrus: And the answer was you guarantee that they won’t lose money if it turns out to be something fake
Daniel Burrus: In other words, as a credit card holder. If you using your credit card number to buy something and it turns out to be legitimate how cover it.
Daniel Burrus: They did that back then got people to start purchasing online, they gave us trust in that way. So,
Daniel Burrus: Still today. Yeah, whether it’s in an organization, whether it is getting advice, whether it is purchasing online, whether it’s on Amazon, or anything else. I mean, how do you know you’re going to get it delivered
Daniel Burrus: How are you going to know it’s okay by the way someone that says you we have a return policy that elevates trust we have no return policy that decreases trust.
Daniel Burrus: So what I want to do, and my to make this strategic, I would say, I want to look for as a leader any opportunity to elevate trust.
Daniel Burrus: Whether it’s within a person because it’s all about people in this technology world. It’s still a human world. It’s still all about trust.
Daniel Burrus: If it’s about getting people to go to my restaurant as the pandemic lips and it will. How do I get them to come back or go into my retail facility, and that is, I got to make sure they trust, they’re going to get sick coming in.
David Horsager: So what can we do in this coming back from Panda and what can people do to increase trust you get leave listed a few ideas, but what do you think they can do in the new economy in this new future world, what are people going to need to do differently.
Daniel Burrus: Well, one of the things, if you’re in retail and by the way we think retail is dead, and that would say no, it just doesn’t actually I think the good old days or brick and mortar retailer ahead of us, but they just don’t look like the days behind us.
Daniel Burrus: Actually that was kind of boring. That’s why they were having trouble in the first place they hadn’t really paid much attention to the customer experience. They didn’t use technology to put some pizzazz into it as well as empower their people.
Daniel Burrus: With knowledge and perhaps some augmented reality glasses that can give them information to give you when you’re asking me a question. I actually have an answer.
Daniel Burrus: Let’s face it, when you try to buy a car usually know more about the car than the person selling you the car. So no wonder they had trouble. So I think
Daniel Burrus: What we need is high, trust and high trust in when it comes to facilities and going into places is we’re probably going to have certified trust by doing like downs and doing cleanings and
Daniel Burrus: Just like when you go into a grocery store, you have more trust because of that plastic that’s going between you and the person behind and they put lines so that you have to stay apart from people and
Daniel Burrus: You know that all elevates trust and what I think will happen. And this is not a hard trend, but I think it’s highly likely and I have not shared this with anybody yet I’m about to start doing that, I’m going to give you a scoop here.
David Horsager: All right inside scoop.
Daniel Burrus: Yeah, how do you get people to get vaccinated because there’s a lot of distrust about that a lot of bad information about the vaccines and someone out there.
Daniel Burrus: And a lot of fear and a lot of people saying I’m not doing that. And so how do you get people to get vaccinated when there’s all of that. And you can’t really make them.
Daniel Burrus: And well the answer is if you notice when people get back center. They’re giving us getting an official card.
Daniel Burrus: Not only to help them go back to get the second vaccination, but it shows, they’ve been vaccinated
Daniel Burrus: And that will also end up as part of your smartphone with facial ID and fingerprint as well. Not yet. You’ll see it will. And so if you want to go to a baseball game football game basketball game you want to go to a concert where you got to do and show your you got your, your shot.
Daniel Burrus: If you don’t, you don’t get in
Daniel Burrus: Well, that will motivate a lot of people
David Horsager: To get
Daniel Burrus: To get there. Well, I’m just telling you
Daniel Burrus: Yeah, you’re gonna start seeing that thing happen because
Daniel Burrus: We need to get at least 80% of the people vaccinated to get enough so that this isn’t going crazy.
Daniel Burrus: Because we could have said, I don’t want the polio shot. We could have said, I don’t want the mumps and measles. We could have said no to a whole bunch of things and you and I may not have ever been born
Daniel Burrus: But may not be around and we still have the ability to say no. But in the age of of disinformation that we’re in now.
Daniel Burrus: There’s going to be other ways of motivating him to do that. Let me give you one last little thing a personal one. I’ll give you I have a college professor friend of mine that is still around. Thankfully, great guy.
Daniel Burrus: And he’s in his late 80s. He and his wife, and they were telling me about two weeks ago that in their retirement community, they’re going to be able to get the shot by the end of the year and they were excited about that because he’s a PhD. He knows what’s going on, but then his
Daniel Burrus: His daughter’s kid who happens to be 28 so she’s not a kid really
Daniel Burrus: Sent him a text saying the CDC just shared all this bad stuff about it and said that came from the CDC and shared this document. He. Luckily, called me and said, boy. Now I’m worried about it. And I said, Well, I’ve never heard the CDC say all that. Can you ask your
Daniel Burrus: Ask her where she got her information. And she said, well, we got it from the CDC and so I asked her again.
Daniel Burrus: And it will actually a friend of mine told me it was from the CDC well as for their friend got it anyway turned off, you got it from the Internet and the CDC never said that. Well, my point is he and his wife are about to not get the shot out of fear. Yeah. And that might have killed him.
Daniel Burrus: He’s in. Hey, it’s almost 90 he’s in that range. So, you know, this can be a very bad thing. So again, I can’t
Daniel Burrus: I’m not trying to here in my tell you what to do. I am saying we need to elevate trust and we need to rely on
Daniel Burrus: Going back to my methodology. There are future facts. So we have facts and we have assumptions.
Daniel Burrus: And there’s a whole science at two assumptions.
Daniel Burrus: As well as future facts. Again, that’s part of what I teach, but I’m also giving you a heads up for David for your work and that is assumptions are unbelievable. Because is that, for example, one of the things that I teach is there’s more than one kind of assumption.
Daniel Burrus: And I like to make things simple. So people remember and I’m got a theme here, I call them hard assumptions versus soft assumptions.
Daniel Burrus: So a soft assumption is either based on your past what you’ve always known by the way they may not be true today. But you’ve always it’s always been good so far.
Daniel Burrus: And because remember technology changes reality, there may be a new reality. Now, I mean a new some new facts.
Daniel Burrus: For example, you can’t trust the internet over anything. Well, I can tell you right now the the
Daniel Burrus: Military is realized actually can get more trust by getting in there with the right level of security, then you can using the old system so
Daniel Burrus: So hard assumption is based, you did your research. So my friend he luckily reached out to me because he didn’t do his research, he was taking it from someone who heard something who heard something.
Daniel Burrus: But from a trusted source.
Daniel Burrus: You know, that was you know his daughters good is that trusted source, but on the other end.
Daniel Burrus: You got to do your fact check. So a soft assumption is, it’s from a person from a person from a trusted person, but you haven’t done some extra checking
Daniel Burrus: Today, with the internet being what it is, I’m just saying. Check your facts and I have a responsibility as you do because I give
Daniel Burrus: You know, I give speeches I do consulting. I work with leaders all over the world trying to help them out. And I can tell you right now, I buy Drupal and quadruple check again everything I’m sharing because it’s important
Daniel Burrus: And I’m a researcher, so I know the power of that. So I’m just saying for all of you.
Daniel Burrus: Double and triple and quadruple check. So if it’s an assumption it least bring it up to the heart assumption and maybe you’ll find there are some things, but you’ll find this there’s actually some future facts to education. Elia
David Horsager: Well, I think people and people not just
David Horsager: The behind the assumptions they have certain things they want to be true. And so that can motivate him finding facts that align with that desire without being any more true
Daniel Burrus: Well, yeah, there’s been some actual some recent studies, meaning within the last several months. So we’re pretty wide scale to find out.
Daniel Burrus: Where is a lot of the disinformation coming from and it’s from people that are their primary news sources, the Internet and the internet doesn’t affect check
Daniel Burrus: Well, it has it a kind, but you know, it’s not like where you’ve got to make sure your sources are good before you put it out there. Um,
Daniel Burrus: No accountability. Yeah, there’s no there’s no accountability and and of course it can be weaponized
Daniel Burrus: And so you’ve got to be careful. So I think in this age of of disinformation as a leader you need to do, make sure you are doing fact checking as a leader before you share things with your people.
Daniel Burrus: So that you can have the confidence to make that statement and not have to come back and bite you.
David Horsager: We’ve talked about this, some but one last question on the core of your work before we get into my final lightning round and and getting to your tech trends that I’m super excited about. But, you know,
David Horsager: You’ve touched on this, but is there anything else you would say, because I think people are finding this this this disruption is is happening. Obviously it’s happened over the last year, but
David Horsager: The thing is disruptions happening ahead. It’s going to happen in a year. It’s going to happen in five years. It’s gonna happen to
David Horsager: Pandemic will be gone. We’re still going to deal with disruption. So you have some thoughts around turning disruption, you thought was outside your control into
David Horsager: Being inside your control. We touched on that. And partly, it’s the mindset of seeing that it’s inside your control. But is there anything else you would just mention about kind of dealing with disruption.
David Horsager: In a proactively
Daniel Burrus: Absolutely. Well, first of all, just a quick comment on the trend card and we’ll get more into that in a minute. But I want to touch on it, and that is that actually have an E book coming out on this and I’ve already been speaking on it, but the pandemic has accelerated.
Daniel Burrus: A most of the technology trends that I’ve been sharing with people for a long time.
Daniel Burrus: e commerce is an accelerated easily 10 years why. Well, we were locked down, of course. But actually, I’ve got 16
Daniel Burrus: Of the 25 hard trends that we’ll talk about in a minute that have been accelerated anywhere between five and 10 years in just a few months, by the way, why did they get accelerated.
Daniel Burrus: And the answer is because we were forced to change. You see organizations are run by humans and humans don’t like the change
Daniel Burrus: We want to change only after a while, a pandemic forced us to change it forced us to lock down it forced us to do homeschooling it forced us to change.
Daniel Burrus: And we were forced to go digital at in new ways. So that forced to change is what caused the pandemic acceleration of these trends and by the way, when trends are accelerated.
Daniel Burrus: Not just months but years in a short amount of time what happened the opportunities have been accelerated as well.
Daniel Burrus: I Lo, I just wanted to make sure that you realize right now. I’m telling you there’s more opportunity than there’s ever been on the planet Earth.
Daniel Burrus: And you use the correct word. A few minutes ago. David, and that is, it’s all about mindset and you’ve got to have your mindset, right, and then now to address the word disruption.
Daniel Burrus: I actually want every one of our viewers and listeners to become what I call positive disruptors. Here’s what I mean by that.
Daniel Burrus: Does Jeff Bezos CEO of Amazon see disruption is negative. Now it’s all the people he’s disrupting
Daniel Burrus: The. See, you’re either going to be a disrupt door or the disrupted. There is no middle there’s no middle just like you’re either going to be more relevant or less relevant
Daniel Burrus: There is no middle and some people are might be coasting let’s just remember you can only coast down hill and there is a bottom
Daniel Burrus: Okay cover that. So, so here’s what I want you to do with hard trends. You can see the disruptions before they disrupt well in advance and i mean you know I got what 37 years of showing all of those. I mean, if you go back. Remember my techno trends book that came out in 93
Daniel Burrus: Way bank.
Daniel Burrus: Brief, yeah. I mean, look, there’s a little part in chapter three that says blockbuster is busted. And if you read about it I described Netflix and but accurate timeframes on it.
Daniel Burrus: And when that book came out, I was speaking at the American Booksellers Association. It’s a different name today, but there were 10,000 booksellers. This was two years before Amazon was launched.
Daniel Burrus: And I said in two years OBO virtual bookstore. Now again I couldn’t say it would be called Amazon. You gotta leave out the parts you can be wrong about. But I can say what happened what because I could see the tools were there and
Daniel Burrus: If the tools are there to do it, someone’s going to do it.
David Horsager: And you, maybe you should
Daniel Burrus: Happen somebody else.
Daniel Burrus: Somebody is going to do that. So here’s what the phrase on, I want you to be a positive disrupter creating the transformations that need to happen.
Daniel Burrus: To create a better future for your family for yourselves for your employees and for your business and increase your relevancy and your growth. So rather than be the disrupted.
Daniel Burrus: Which I don’t think is a good option, although I would like you to have a choice. I want you all to become positive disruptors, and make it better.
David Horsager: Perfect. We got to get to those trends. Let’s hear about those trends before we wrap up the day and then we’re going to at least we’re going to touch on them. And then we’re going to show people where to find them. Dan, I am so excited about this. You’ve got 20 tech trends.
Daniel Burrus: Actually, I got
Daniel Burrus: 2525 five tech trends and you can get that list by the way of going to burst VU R Us that com forward slash see the future.
David Horsager: See the future and do those will be in the show notes at trusted leader show com
David Horsager: www.burris.com slash see the future. It’ll all be right there in the show notes. And we want you to go there. This can be fun. Give us a little overview of those for just two minutes.
Daniel Burrus: Yeah, well, you know, the, the key is, we might look at AI, for example.
Daniel Burrus: And there is AI, but there’s machine learning, which is another category within that, there’s a number of categories and we think what’s going to take all the jobs or whatever.
Daniel Burrus: But one of the trends that I talked about is augmentation. There’s physical augmentation and there’s
Daniel Burrus: Thought or cognitive augmentation. So how we’re going to use AI going forward. And these are hard trends, you’re not going to stop them. But you can shape them to your advantage is that AI is going to
Daniel Burrus: Be used. Let’s give you an example of an oncologist right now AI knows more about analogy than any living on colleges, because it’s scoured all of the material, it’s learned all this stuff, it has in it in that AI everything about on college
Daniel Burrus: So if you knew someone who had cancer and would you want and they needed and colleges. So I’ll give you three choices are really great oncologist.
Daniel Burrus: Just AI or a on colleges who has access to AI and can use augmented thinking
Daniel Burrus: To treat that human that’s augmented thinking, by the way, another form of physical augmentation is to put on an exoskeleton as a 90 pound nurse and be able to lift a 200 pound person into a bed, which has already happened.
Daniel Burrus: So there’s physical augmentation and there’s cognitive back augmentation. That’s one of 25 and then I talked about how that can how that’s accelerating and how you can make use of the different industries, that’s only one of 25 and that’s a big one.
David Horsager: That’s a big one.
Daniel Burrus: There. Oh, whoa, giant take away
David Horsager: And you know what, with every one of those 25
David Horsager: There is an opportunity. So everybody needs to go there. Everybody’s need to look at the those we need to have you back and go through each of those, but that is absolutely fascinating. So
David Horsager: Here we go, let’s get to the quick fire a little lightning round, and this has been amazing. You have so much to offer. And I know everybody like to hear more from you. But let’s get to it.
David Horsager: The from the greatest futurist in the world. And my friend, Dan, what’s your favorite book or resource.
Daniel Burrus: Well, you know, somebody asked me that, you know, what was the book that had the biggest impact on for me and and I told him the Absolute Truth. It was the little engine that could
Daniel Burrus: It was a little I read when I was a little kid, and the little engine that could as I think I can. I think I can. Until I know I can. I know I can you know what you are. It’s the mirror. Look in the mirror, you’ll see
Daniel Burrus: The thing that that impacts you and that keeps you from and most of my reading is what most people don’t read
Daniel Burrus: You know I’m reading research I’m reading global research and innovations and our bad. I mean, to me that’s candy.
Daniel Burrus: And so I do. That’s my fun reading and I also like to read like the Asian Wall Street Journal
Daniel Burrus: The London Financial Times because we live in a big world. I like to read research on of India and other things. So I don’t read what most people read because I like to tell people what they haven’t heard before.
David Horsager: Love it.
David Horsager: Anything you can’t live without. Dan, what’s something you can’t live without get to know you personally here.
Daniel Burrus: Oh, I can’t live without love. I can’t live without friends and family. I can’t live without community.
Daniel Burrus: You know those are really, really, that the, you know, the key to all of us and to humanity.
Daniel Burrus: And I think during these times of code, what I’ve told people that are struggling with it and depressed about it and bummed out about it is
Daniel Burrus: They’re focusing too much on them. That’s why they’re bummed out. But if they focus on helping others, they’ll find themselves being uplifted
Daniel Burrus: That’s, you know, that’s a key. So I think, but from another. If you go away from that one thing that’s been a part of my life since I was in elementary school is music
Daniel Burrus: I play it doesn’t instruments, I put myself through college playing lead guitar in Iraq, man. So I play every day. I play different many, many instruments. I got a flute right over there. I
David Horsager: I see the guitar behind you. Yeah, I got a guitar back here. I got another one over there.
Daniel Burrus: So you know I so music guy and playing is really been a, an important part of my life.
David Horsager: You know one thing back to the community piece also is just and
David Horsager: We say it all the time here. And I think it’s a quote early on in my, in my next book coming out trusted leader that if you’re doing leadership alone, you’re doing it wrong.
David Horsager: And you know, we see so many people at the top alone and they’re not leading well because of that, and we need each other. We need community. And even though we want to know tech trends and we want to
David Horsager: See a, you know, look at the future. It all comes back to people and relationships and trust and and community. And so I love that, especially
Daniel Burrus: tag on what you just said. That’s really important.
Daniel Burrus: The same tool that could give you cancer could cure your cancer because a lot of people think that technology is evil. Oh no, they think that is either high touch or high tech and I would say that’s that you can bring them together perfectly or leave them apart.
Daniel Burrus: So it’s not the tool. It’s how you use it.
Daniel Burrus: What I would like us to do is to use these tools to build a more connected and more human, and more enlightened future
Daniel Burrus: You’re seeing. I’m not so excited about predicting the future is I am excited about empowering people to actively shape a positive future because if you’re not shaping your future someone else’s shaping it for you. Think about that.
David Horsager: That’s a perfect ending piece of advice, but we we got to get to our final question.
Daniel Burrus: Okay. There’s another one. All right, you got it.
David Horsager: Yeah, I mean that I love that final, final is this, you know, it’s a trusted leader show
David Horsager: Who’s the leader you trust and why
Daniel Burrus: Oh,
Daniel Burrus: I think I trust. There’s a lot of people I trust it different, at different levels and different things, but
Daniel Burrus: And you’re talking about a living leader today.
David Horsager: It for anyone, you’d like
David Horsager: You take it however you’d like
Daniel Burrus: Yeah, well, I think.
Daniel Burrus: People that are have trust is earned through honesty, integrity, delivering on promises and and those types of things and people that try to not waver from that and don’t get sucked into the
Daniel Burrus: Politics and all of those kinds of things. And just tell you, you know, give you the, you know, here’s the facts as we know them. And if there’s some new facts will give you those suits.
Daniel Burrus: And I do think that our medical community has been doing a pretty good job of trying to tell us the you know the hospitals are indeed full. It’s not a joke.
Daniel Burrus: And and this isn’t either a real virus. We have to do some things to to protect ourselves from it and and so, you know, I trust the science. I trust the technology and address the people that are trying to separate opinion from fact
Daniel Burrus: And because opinions are different.
Daniel Burrus: You know the news shows tend to give us more opinion, then in fact nowadays, unfortunately, and I’m talking about all
David Horsager: Yeah, that’s what gets you eyeballs.
David Horsager: Yeah. Oh, wow. Well, we could do a whole lot more here. And, Dan, there’s for so many reasons I trust you. You’ve been an advisor to so many
David Horsager: Global governments and also just to me. So I thank you for that I thank you for your friendship. I thank you for the work you’re doing to be a positive disruptors are so many takeaways here future facts and opposites work better and
David Horsager: Hard versus soft so many things you can learn from that, from Dan go to birth.com go get the trends at birth comm slash see the future and you know it’s been a treat to be here.
David Horsager: We want you to keep building trust and, you know, as we said on the farm growing up.
David Horsager: Now you got to do the work that pile doesn’t shovel itself the bales don’t bail themselves. You gotta go do the work and trust takes work. Being a positive disrupter takes work.
David Horsager: Be a positive dose rupture that builds trust. And I think that’d be a home run for all of us. So I’m going to seek to do it. Thanks for inspiring us and we’ll see you next time on the trusted leader show.